The NFL was already planning to explore the onside kick before Dan Campbell made a regrettable decision to try one at an unusual time.
Detroit's ultra-aggressive coach called for an onside kick with the Lions trailing the Bills by 10 points and 12 minutes remaining. Buffalo's Mack Hollins recovered the kick, ran it back to the 5 and the Bills scored on the next play on their way to a 48-42 victory Sunday in a potential Super Bowl preview.
Bringing back surprise onside kicks would benefit coaches like Campbell, who aren't afraid to take risks. Nobody likes to gamble more than Campbell, who isn't shy about going for it on fourth down no matter the situation.
Campbell attempted this onside kick out of desperation. Detroit's injury-riddled defense couldn't stop Josh Allen and the Bills. Buffalo had five touchdowns, one field goal and one missed field goal in its first nine possessions when the Lions tried the onside kick.
"I thought we'd get that ball," Campbell said. "I wish I hadn't done it."
The Bills knew it was coming because teams must declare an onside kick and can only try it in the fourth quarter under the league's overhauled kickoff rules. The element of surprise — the Saints once executed an onside kick to start the second half in a Super Bowl — has been eliminated this season due to the new rules, which further reduced the success rate.
Executing successful onside kicks began to decline in 2018 when the NFL banned running starts on kickoffs. The success rate was cut in half to 8.6% since that change.
Entering Week 15, only 3 of 41 (7.3%) onside kicks were recovered.
NFL executive Troy Vincent said last week the competition committee has to consider options to revive the onside kick because it has become "a dead play." The league made dynamic changes to the kickoff rules in the offseason to bring back returns. That has worked at the expense of the onside kick.
"I think all has to be on the table," Vincent said. "When we adjusted the kickoff five, six years ago, that also (impacted) the onside kick. You used to have overload, attack blocks, trap blocks that occurred on that play, which was a pretty dangerous play. You can set people up for failures is what we would say.
"I think you have to look at all aspects. You should be able to do that in any quarter. It's not a surprise onside kick. I think all of those things have to come back to the table. We should explore. Our effort should be to make every single play a competitive play and that includes that play whether it's first quarter or fourth quarter."
Perhaps the best option would be giving a team an opportunity to run one play to gain a certain number of yards to keep possession. Because it'll be difficult to revise the onside kick without changing the overall formation all kickoffs, this radical idea may be the best solution.
The Eagles proposed an onside kick alternative that would've let teams try a fourth-and-20 from their own 20. Club owners rejected it in a vote during the league's annual spring meetings.
"It has garnered (more votes from) where we started and the votes that it received and where it ended a year ago," Vincent said. "There has been progress, but those are all the things that we should be exploring. We have to be creative. And I think our coaches, they can be creative enough to come up with a good solid, competitive play to bring some excitement back in those situations."
There's no telling how many onside kicks someone like Campbell would try if the element of surprise returned. The fourth-and-long alternative won't be a surprise but it's a better option than the current onside kick.
The reason Campbell even tried the onside kick early in the fourth quarter is a major problem for Detroit, which had its 11-game winning streak snapped. The depleted Lions (12-2) lost defensive tackle Alim McNeill and cornerback Carlton Davis III to potential season-ending injuries. They're already missing star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson and have more players on injured reserve than any other team.
"I'm not buying it, I don't," Campbell said about the injuries possibly catching up to the defense. "We can be better. We should've been better. We know how good they are but that team was more urgent than us."